The material theory of induction and the epistemology of thought experiments

John D. Norton is responsible for a number of influential views in contemporary philosophy of science. This paper will discuss two of them. The material theory of induction claims that inductive arguments are ultimately justified by their material features, not their formal features. Thus, while a deductive argument can be valid irrespective of the content of the propositions that make up the argument, an inductive argument about, say, apples, will be justified (or not) depending on facts about apples. The argument view of thought experiments claims that thought experiments are arguments, and that they function epistemically however arguments do. These two views have generated a great deal of discussion, although there hasn't been much written about their combination. I argue that despite some interesting harmonies, there is a serious tension between them. I consider several options for easing this tension, before suggesting a set of changes to the argument view that I take to be consistent with Norton's fundamental philosophical commitments, and which retain what seems intuitively correct about the argument view. These changes require that we move away from a unitary epistemology of thought experiments and towards a more pluralist position.     

Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves

This work proposes a new approach for the prediction of the electricity price based on forecasting aggregated purchase and sale curves. The basic idea is to model the hourly purchase and the sale curves, to predict them and to find the intersection of the predicted curves in order to obtain the predicted equilibrium market price and volume. Modeling and forecasting of purchase and sale curves is performed by means of functional data analysis methods. More specifically, parametric (FAR) and nonparametric (NPFAR) functional autoregressive models are considered and compared to some benchmarks. An appealing feature of the functional approach is that, unlike other methods, it provides insights into the sale and purchase mechanism connected with the price and demand formation process and can therefore be used for the optimization of bidding strategies. An application to the Italian electricity market (IPEX) is also provided, showing that NPFAR models lead to a statistically significant improvement in the forecasting accuracy.     

Forecasting under model uncertainty: Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models with Pòlya-Gamma data augmentation

We consider finite state-space non-homogeneous hidden Markov models for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state-dependent coefficients and time-varying transition probabilities that depend on the predictors via a logistic/multinomial function. In a hidden Markov setting, inference for logistic regression coefficients becomes complicated and in some cases impossible due to convergence issues. In this paper, we aim to address this problem utilizing the recently proposed Pólya-Gamma latent variable scheme. Also, we allow for model uncertainty regarding the predictors that affect the series both linearly — in the mean — and non-linearly — in the transition matrix. Predictor selection and inference on the model parameters are based on an automatic Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme with reversible jump steps. Hence the proposed methodology can be used as a black box for predicting time series. Using simulation experiments, we illustrate the performance of our algorithm in various setups, in terms of mixing properties, model selection and predictive ability. An empirical study on realized volatility data shows that our methodology gives improved forecasts compared to benchmark models.     

Can online search data improve the forecast accuracy of pork price in China?

Online search data provide us with a new perspective for quantifying public concern about animal diseases, which can be regarded as a major external shock to price fluctuations. We propose a modeling framework for pork price forecasting that incorporates online search data with support vector regression model. This novel framework involves three main steps: that is, formulation of the animal diseases composite indexes (ADCIs) based on online search data; forecast with the original ADCIs; and forecast improvement with the decomposed ADCIs. Considering that there are some noises within the online search data, four decomposition techniques are introduced: that is, wavelet decomposition, empirical mode decomposition, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, and singular spectrum analysis. The experimental study confirms the superiority of the proposed framework, which improves both the level and directional prediction accuracy. With the SSA method, the noise within the online search data can be removed and the performance of the optimal model is further enhanced. Owing to the long-term effect of diseases outbreak on price volatility, these improvements are more prominent in the mid- and long-term forecast horizons.     

多任务深度卷积网络的CT图像方向校正

针对医学电子计算机断层扫描(CT)图像方向校正问题,提出一种并行卷积回归(PCRN)多任务深度学习网络.通过侧旋角度正回归和翻转概率逻辑回归,求得校正参数来精准地校正图像.进一步,针对医学图像训练样本稀缺的情况,提出一种串行回归(SCRN)的深度学习架构,弥补并行卷积回归网络在小样本情况下校正精度不足的问题.实验结果表明:在样本充分,并行卷积回归网络和样本稀缺情况下,串行卷积回归网络对小角度偏转、大角度偏转和翻转的腹部CT图像校正结果都优于传统的配准方法.     

基于Java跨平台数字图像处理技术的塞曼效应实验软件改进

基于Java跨平台数字图像处理技术,对塞曼效应实验CCD图像处理软件进行了开发与改进.测试结果显示,所开发的图像处理软件能很好地实现跨平台作业,且由于采用多点拟合代替原系统中的3点拟合,进一步提高了实验精度.     

多壁碳纳米管和 pH 值对 YBO3：Eu（5％）的形貌和发光的协同效应

用添加有多壁碳纳米管（MWCNT ）的前驱体溶液，通过水热合成法，在260℃条件下制备了一系列YBO3：Eu3＋样品。当前驱体溶液的pH值从5到10的范围变化时，所制备的样品表现出丰富的形貌，包括鼓状、片状、六面体状、六角状和花状颗粒，这是由碳纳米管表面接枝官能团与前驱体溶液中不同形式 HBO3的协同效应所致。发光测量结果表明p H＝9和10的样品的红／橙（R／O ）比提高了，表现出更好的色纯度，这归因于晶界或颗粒表面的E u3＋具有较低的局部对称性。     

数据挖掘在检测农业补贴中欺诈行为的应用——基于异常检测与神经网络模型

随着国家对农业发展扶持力度的不断加大,农业补贴申请资金得到提高的同时,其种类也在逐渐扩充.因此,如何检测农业补贴申请中的欺诈行为是一项值得关注的研究课题.通过对clementine 12.0中的案例数据分别构建异常检测和神经网络模型,对农业补贴申请记录中的欺诈行为进行检测,并借助clementine12.0的可视化实验平台直观、有效地观察检测结果.实验结果表明:提出的方法可以明显地提高检测欺诈行为的效率及准确率,具有一定的启发和借鉴意义.     

Self-rolled TiO_2 microscroll/graphene composite for electrochemical dopamine sensing

Dopamine is an important neurotransmitter,and nonenzyme electrochemical sensor of dopamine detection based on highly active material is urgently demanded.In this work,an electrochemical sensor with high sensitivity and selectivity based on self-rolled TiO_2microscroll/graphene composite was developed and validated for dopamine sensing.The device exhibited a superior performance for dopamine detection with a detection limit of 4.25×10~(-9)mol L~(-1),and in the dopamine concentration range of 0.06–90μmol L~(-1),the oxidation currents increased linearly with the concentration.The remarkable performance enhancement was mainly ascribed to the increased surface area due to the porous surface of the TiO_2nanomembrane and highly conductive graphene therein.In addition,we have demonstrated that the sensor could be effectively used on detecting dopamine concentrations in urine samples.Our work demonstrates that the current microscroll-based device is promising in the field of real-time health monitoring for future human community.     

Recent advances and challenges in materials for 3D bioprinting

3D bioprinting has been developed as a promising technology in a wide variety of biomedical applications. However, the successful implementation of bioprinting is still heavily restricted by the relatively narrow range of printable and biocompatible materials. Recently, many comprehensive reviews of the main bioprinting methods, commonly used bioprinting materials and the trending bioprinting applications have been carried out. In this review, we focused on the trends in the development of materials for 3D bioprinting. The significance and recent advances of ECM-based materials, multi-material and stimuli-responsive materials for bioprinting were summarized successively. Moreover, the challenges in current studies and future perspectives of materials for 3D bioprinting were discussed.